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- ×÷Õߣº À´Ô´£º ÈÕÆÚ£º2006-05-08 µã»÷£º391
SCREEN ONE
Analyze your market on a longer-term chart, using trend-following indicators, and make a strategic decision to trade long, short, or stand aside.
Choose the timeframe you prefer to trade and call it intermediate.
Let us select a five-minute chart for our intermediate timeframe, with each
bar representing five minutes of trading. You can choose a longer chart if you wish, but not much shorter, as that might pit you against institutional
scalpers. To stand completely apart from the crowd, you may select an unorthodox length, such as seven or nine minutes. Some day-traders, intoxicated by the promise of technology, use one-minute or even tick charts. These provide the illusion that you are present on the floor, even though it can easily take half a minute or longer for the data to be keyed in, uploaded to the satellite, and broadcast to your screen. You are not on the floor, you are behind. When markets begin to run, time lags get even worse.
Multiply your intermediate timeframe by five to find the long-termtimeframe. If your intermediate timeframe is five minutes, use a 25-minute chart. If your software does not allow plotting 25-minute charts, round it off to half an hour. A successful trader needs to stand apart from the crowd. This is why it pays to use uncommon parameters for charts and indicators. There are probably thousands of people using half-hourly charts, but only a tiny minority uses 25-minute charts and gets its signals a little faster.
Apply a trend-following indicator to the long-term chart and use its direction to make a strategic decision to trade long, short, or stand aside.
Start with a 20- or 30-bar EMA and adjust its length until it tracks your
market with a minimum of whipsaws. When the 25-minute EMA rises, it
identifies an uptrend and tells you to trade from the long side or stand aside. When the EMA falls, it identifies a downtrend and tells you to trade only from the short side or stand aside. Make a strategic decision on this long-term chart before returning to your intermediate-term charts. Successful day-traders tend to rely less on indicators and more on chart patterns. The gaps between trading days can distort intraday indicators. Still, some indicators, such as moving averages and envelopes, also called channels, are useful even with intraday charts.
SCREEN TWO
Return to the intermediate (five-minute) charts to look for entries in the
direction of the trend.
Plot a 22-bar EMA on the five-minute chart and draw a channel that contains about 95% of price action.
Moving averages reflect the average consensus of value, while channels show the normal limits of bullishness and bearishness. We want to get long during up trends, buying below the EMA on a five-minute chart, and short in downtrends, above the EMA. Do not get long above the upper channel line, where the market is overvalued, or sell short below the lower channel line, where it is undervalued.
Use oscillators, such as MACD-Histogram and Force Index, to identify
overbought and oversold areas.
Trade in the direction of the tide, entering when a wave goes against the tide.
When the 25-minute trend is up, falling prices and oscillators on a five-minute chart reflect a temporary bearish imbalance—a buying opportunity. When the 25-minute trend is down, rising prices and oscillators on a five-minute chart reflect a temporary bullish imbalance—a shorting opportunity. Day-traders sometimes ask whether they should analyze weekly and daily charts. The weekly trend is essentially meaningless for them, and
even the daily is of limited value. Looking at too many timeframes can
lead to “paralysis from analysis.”
Place SafeZone stops.
After entering a trade, place a protective stop,
using the SafeZone method (see page 173). Consider making it “on close
only”; watch the screen and give an order to exit only if the five-minute
bar closes beyond your stop level. This way, a brief penetration caused
by market noise will not touch off a stop. Naturally, there is no bargaining
or waiting for another tick. To be a day-trader, you must have iron discipline!
SCREEN THREE
This screen handles entries and exits.
Enter in the vicinity of a moving average on a five-minute chart.¡¾½»Ò×֪ʶmacd.org.cnÊÕ¼¯ÕûÀí¡¿
If the 25-minute trend is up, buy pullbacks to the EMA on a five-minute
chart, especially when oscillators are oversold. Reverse the procedure in downtrends. This is better than chasing breakouts, buying at the highs, or shorting at the lows.
Take profits in the vicinity of the channel line.
If you buy near the moving average, aim to sell near the upper channel line. If your five-minute oscillators, such as MACD-Histogram, are making new highs and related markets are rallying, you may wait for the channel to be
hit or penetrated. If the indicators are weak, grab your profit fast without
waiting for prices to touch the channel.
Measure your performance as the percentage of the channel width.
You must be an A trader to make day-trading worthwhile. Even then,
you have to prove to yourself that you can make more money day trading
than position trading. Try to trade only a few times a day and aim to catch at least a third of that day’s range. Enter cautiously, but run fast. Do not trade during after-hours sessions when markets tend to be very thin. ¡¾½»Ò×֪ʶmacd.org.cnÊÕ¼¯ÕûÀí¡¿